Horse racing tips: Templegates 5-2 NAP can bolt up in the big Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket

November 1, 2024November 1, 2024 ExclusiveadminBolts Up Daily

The opening day always majors on speed, quality, and drama from the get-go, with a double-barrelled Grade 1 two-mile novice volley to kick us off. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they’ve enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

‘His season starts here’ – 85/1 Gordon Elliott Down Royal accumulator on Friday

Among a clutch of lightly raced juveniles, Bolt Action, Kaasib and Paddy’s Day all merit a second look. A short-head Wolverhampton maiden victor in November, Fast Company’s son made his return for 2022 in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s All-Weather Championships Finals card in April. Simply register, place you £10 bet on horse racing and you will receive £30 in free bets. The four-year-old grey has improved this season, winning a Listed race at Doncaster and the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown, while he was second to Audience in the Lockinge at Newbury last time out.

Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds.
A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede.
We now only have eight winners, from 291 runners, but an SP profit of 40 points.
Quite often you call these horses something that they’re not, because you want them to be the best horse you’ve trained – and quite often you are disappointed.
The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.
We’re looking for races where all runners are exposed; that is, they’re experienced and have shown pretty much all they have to the handicapper already.
There’s a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn’t with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that’s reflected in their respective odds.
Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last.

50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off. Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.

Bet £10 Get £50 in Football Bet Builders

The first chase of the week is the Arkle Challenge Trophy, a two mile event for novices. If it perhaps lacks a little star quality this year – there can’t be a Shishkin/Altior/Douvan every time – it remains competitive from a betting perspective. The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more. To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.

They’re off in the Cross Country Chase

Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in open handicap hurdles at the Fez, scoring seven times from just 60 starters in the past decade. He’s also added another ten placed horses for a brilliant 28% place strike rate. Gordon Elliott has performed even better in place terms, hitting the frame with twelve of his 34 such runners (35%). He also has a win and two places in the Fred Winter, from 11 starters.

How to quantify trainer form pre-Cheltenham?

And that’s a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there’s a winner or three in its midst. We’ll all be back to do it again tomorrow – see you then. Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they’ll likely be steady away over this extended trip. Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase Micro System

While we aren’t going to head into too much detail here, The Statistical Lay, Back the Beaten Favourite, and The Dutching System all have armies of followers.
Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £.
On his latest outing, Pats Fancy was a three length second to Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 pounds.
Notably, the big guns – Chantry House, Champ – have run very well.
What we do know is that flagbearers like Envoi Allen have been moved to other yards and that has to have a negative bearing on overall figures this time around.
It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles.

That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it’s possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above). Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.

CHARITY BETS

44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps – or maybe just coincidence – two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.

Presenting Percy wins by several lengths

Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.

Horse Racing tips: Best bets for the weekend’s cards at Epsom and Sandown

Sometimes you can spend a lot of time looking for something which, in the end, only tells you that there is probably nothing to be found.
Sydney Street left his debut run behind to finish third at Ffos Las last time and will be the danger if building on that again.
A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one.
The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip.
Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track.
The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.
It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week.
Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time.
And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead.

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works. Created in 2007, this class two handicap is run over a trip of six furlongs at Doncaster Racecourse and is open to runners who are aged three or older.

Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday. Since the early days, horse racing has grown from royal entertainment into big business. For most bookies, it remains their bread and butter, alongside football and tennis as the most popularly wagered sports. So you’ve done the legwork, found the perfect horse racing bookmaker, but now what? Well, it’s time to lay down a bet, and it really couldn’t be easier.

In that spirit, I’ll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy.
Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper!
Mullins was actually unrepresented in that inaugural running, but then went on to win nine of the next ten editions, six of them with the fantastic though only occasionally seen Quevega.
I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it.
Although horses that either finished 3rd LTO or 5th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures.
Being late in the flat season, the race can be run on testing but it does usually drum up plenty of interest with good-sized fields.
On ratings she has a few pounds to find with some of these but her trainer is making optimistic noises (for whatever that is worth).

She’s the classiest mare in the entries for this race by at least seven pounds, and there’s a chance that drying ground sees Roksana re-routed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There will still be Concertista to deal with, but Honeysuckle will be more 8/11 than 11/8 on the day if she runs here. If she doesn’t, you’ll get your cash back a fortnight hence.

Energumene – Marsh Novices’ Chase – 2/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

We’re talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them ‘medalling’ in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland. It’s pretty clumsy and there’s no getting away from that fact.

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 4 👇🏼

Diversifying your sources by leveraging multiple tipsters can provide diverse perspectives on races, including insights on global events. Get Your Tips Out maintains a consistent standard of excellence by offering high-quality tips consistently, especially on prominent races. With a finger on the pulse of races across the world, punters can rely on Get Your Tips Out to deliver timely and in-depth analysis of not just mainstream events but also niche races that can be hidden gems for expert bettors. Although top UK racing tipsters, followers of Australian races have also benefited greatly, with our well-researched analyses.

Champion Chase – 2-0 to the Girls

Still, better will have been expected overall and better will be needed if Shishkin’s price is not to flirt with odds-against between now and mid-March. Last year’s Arkle winner has excellent Cheltenham form, being three from three at the track including that Festival score. Dan Skelton trains this mare and she’s looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December. Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle.

David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.

Oh, and Happy St. Paddy’s Day!

Conditions were pretty terrible that day which wouldn’t have suited Teddy Blue at all so it was no real surprise, especially given the amount of energy he’d wasted early on, that he’d effectively shot his bolt by the third-last. He has few miles on the clock and was much improved when second at Wolverhampton last time. The best tipsGet the very best advice direct from the horse’s mouth via our expert tips page, featuring free tips as well as exclusive advice from some of the best judges in the business. The racecardsFind out more about the daily races, upcoming events and big-race entries via our cards page.

Use the “Commission” box to see the effect this will have on profits. Data on the Timeform website is protected by © and database rights and may not be used for any purpose without a licence. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. The action you just performed triggered the security solution.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 195 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners. On trainer changes, it is obvious that not all trainers are equally talented and, especially, not all trainers are equally good Bolts Up Daily at finding the key to a horse in their care. A change of scenery is sometimes enough, but often it is a change of regime or some personal attention – maybe a weekly back massage or whatever – that can aid a horse’s progression. Under the conditions of the race, we can see that ‘Led’ (green blob) types have fared best.

It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.

No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices. On his latest outing, Pats Fancy was a three length second to Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 pounds. His stable mate, Beatthebullet, is more than two stone ‘wrong’ with the top rated of these and appears to be the much maligned ‘social runner’. In that earlier preview, I found it impossible to oppose Honeysuckle. I still do, though after an electric gear change to settle the race last time she didn’t really stretch away as it appeared she might.